American Idol 2011

With supposed frontrunner Pia Toscano's shocking elimination last night (has a "frontrunner" ever gone so early?), I figured it was time to offer my thoughts on this year's series of American Idol. Though I've stuck with the show since its beginning, it hasn't always been an enjoyable ride. Last year was one of the most painfully dull and cringeworthy seasons of any reality show, ever, and nearly destroyed the entire franchise. This year has been far more enjoyable, with likeable (if not outstanding) contestants, likeable (if not all that constructive) judges and some minor tweaks here and there.

But honestly, it's not the show that's held my attention continuously this year... it's the results show. It's become the best (and strangest) hour of reality tv all week. From what-the-hell voting to crazy cameos, it's easily the most unpredictable Idol's ever been. And yet here I am, trying to predict who will go home when. Here are my thoughts:

Top 8 Exit - Stefano: Overstayed his welcome already. I was sure he'd go this week. I think everyone was, which means that he'll get no sympathy next week.

Top 7 Exit - Jacob: Overpraised since the beginning for a very pitchy, dramatic voice. His appearance this week in the bottom three is the first sign of his vulnerability and his snotty comments this week won't win him any new fans.

Top 6 Exit - Haley: I honestly don't know how she got more votes that Pia (or Thia or Naima, actually). I guess it's the Brooke White/Crystal Bowersox voters. I still don't think it will be enough for her to be the last girl standing, though.

Top 5 Exit - Paul: One of my favorites, though I'm continually surprised that he's still in the competition. He's a very odd choice for AI, though I think that will help bump him into the top five. Just barely, though.

Top 4 Exit - Casey: Will stay around far longer than he should have due to the infamous judges' save and the publicity that came out of that. People have now connected to him, as annoying as he is.

Top 3 Exit - Lauren: The only girl this year with the personality necessary to connect with voters. The country thing certainly helps her, but it really is down to how she comes across when she's not singing.

Runner-up - James: Has the likeability factor and the voice reminiscent of Adam Lambert (except for that "gay stuff," which will guarantee that conservatives can vote for him without having to pray). I think he'll be a little too polarizing to win, though.

Winner - Scotty: He's really the perfect AI contestant because he appeals to what I consider to be the two biggest voting blocks for the show -- teen girls and country fans. Plus, his personality guarantees him crossover appeal. I've even voted for him a few times. I can't see him losing, but with the way this season's been going, who knows?